Chicken, Egg, Politics

March 4, 2008

I could do with an end to this topsy-turvy Democratic primary. But even if this goes on for another month or two, the complexity of this race, on both sides, should force everyone to build a more complex model as to how these contests work. Simplifications are everywhere: it is about the press; it is about money; it is about the people. People want an easy explanation for success.

If the race were all about money, then Mitt Romney would have trounced everyone. He spent and spent and cash strapped Mike Huckabee ran away with his voters. Money is not the determiner of success.

If the race were all about the press then Giuliani would still be with us. He got plenty of press, especially early on. Hillary Clinton would have been a goner after Iowa. She survived that near death experience and tonight may be in the process of a similar feat. So the press can go one direction and voters in another.

So maybe the race is all about the will of the people? Money and press are the only ways to actually get your name out to the people.. not to mention get on a ballot. The crazy election system that has come about makes it possible that the final candidate for the Democratic party will not be the one with the strongest popular support.

What we have going in these elections is an incredibly complex system that has several feedback loops. The press is not about to start covering person X just because he announces he is running for president. There needs to be some sign of support first. This can be in the form of fundraising success, high profile political backing, or broad name recognition. In every case I believe it could be shown that the press had some real signal that a person was a "for real" candidate. Money can be used to get the attention of the press, but it also needs press coverage to lend a campaign legitimacy and therefore signal to people that this campaign is a good bet.

The people can be fooled sometimes, but they do generally seem to recognize when a candidate is flawed. But while the voter can be depended on to make some reasonable calls, it is also true that the popular vote can be managed and cajoled by means of advertisements and slogans. Further, the election system itself.. the order of contests, the caucuses, and the delegate system.. add a dimension of chance to the contest.

The tendency is to look for a single cause that would have the power to explain why some candidates get pushed up and others get pulled down. The fact is this is as useless as asking the old chicken versus egg question. We instead see a complex system which has a number of levers guiding the outcome.